Of course. The quarterback is on pace for 803 dropbacks, which would smash the single-season NFL record (Matthew Stafford, 771 in 2012). The massive sample size will help the next regime evaluate whether to stick with Howell as the franchise quarterback or to use a top draft pick to acquire a successor — a pick that could be quite high.
There’s a lot to like about Howell: toughness, mobility, arm talent and steady improvement. But he hasn’t been as impressive against good defenses. For him to continue to show growth, he must limit his turnovers, play with more consistency and take fewer sacks.
Howell said he thinks he has matured mentally, that he has improved at deciphering defenses presnap. But, at the same time, he said he also hasn’t “reflected much on my growth throughout the season.”
“I’m just trying to take it one week at a time,” he added.
2. Eric Bieniemy’s play-calling
The coordinator is the other critical half of the Commanders’ offense. Bieniemy’s future is unclear. His three options are to be promoted to head coach, remain in his current role under a new coach or get cut loose as part of a regime change.
Washington’s offense has boomed at times under Bieniemy, reaching the 30-point mark three times, but it also has been inconsistent, including scoring just 10 points last week at Dallas. Bieniemy can explain early hiccup performances as growing pains in a complex West Coast scheme with a young quarterback. But the argument would be stronger if the offense improved down the stretch, especially against strong defenses.
Howell has endorsed Bieniemy at every opportunity, praising the coach for respecting his opinion on play calls and game-planning.
“Lately he’s been calling games really, really well, and I think he’s starting to get a really good feel for how to be successful with the talent that we have here,” Howell said Wednesday. “I just think I’ve seen him get better and better each and every week.”
Washington currently has the fifth pick in the 2024 draft. But things could change dramatically over the final six weeks. There are three clear contenders for the top pick — Arizona (2-10), New England (2-9) and Chicago (via 1-10 Carolina) — and then there’s a jumbled mess. Teams with four or five wins own the fourth through 15th picks.
The Commanders have the third-hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to sports-betting analysis website Inpredictable.com. ESPN projections give the team a 55.2 percent chance to land in the top five picks and a 94.2 percent chance to be in the top 10.
A high pick in what’s expected to be a quarterback-rich draft would be valuable. Washington could pick a young passer or trade down and collect assets from a team pursuing one.
4. Final auditions for the new regime
The only clear cornerstones of the franchise are wide receiver Terry McLaurin and defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. Managing partner Josh Harris greenlit trading two first-round picks, defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young, at the deadline. The next regime will evaluate the entire roster upon arrival, so every player should treat the home stretch as a final audition for a larger role or a new contract.
The last five games are particularly important for the players set to be free agents. The stakes are perhaps highest for safety Kam Curl, who will be 25 and near the top of the market next spring. He’s a smart, dependable player but hasn’t made many impact plays this season (one forced fumble, no interceptions).
Same goes for role players looking for second contracts, such as running back Antonio Gibson, linebacker Khaleke Hudson and defensive ends James Smith-Williams and Casey Toohill.
Younger players under contract looking for larger roles next season include running back Brian Robinson Jr., wide receiver Jahan Dotson, right guard Sam Cosmi, linebacker Jamin Davis, running back Chris Rodriguez Jr., tight end Cole Turner, safety Percy Butler and cornerback Benjamin St-Juste.
5. Development of young players
This mostly includes players from the 2022 and 2023 draft classes — especially cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. The first-round pick has what Coach Ron Rivera called a “pretty serious” elbow injury, but if he can play again this season, a strong finish might ease the pain of a rocky start and bolster his confidence heading into the offseason.
Other young players who are expected to play more, because of injury or trades, are defensive back Quan Martin, left guard Chris Paul, defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis and defensive ends KJ Henry and Andre Jones Jr.
Washington could also use these games to test developmental projects who’ve never seen the field, such as 6-foot-8 tight end Curtis Hodges and offensive lineman Mason Brooks.
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