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And just like that, the clay-court swing is upon us.
We are a week away from the dirty season really heating up with the Monte-Carlo Masters, but the current trio of Houston, Estoril, and Marrakech provides some serious quantity even if the quality may be lacking just a bit. Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe, Denis Shapovalov, Casper Ruud, Hubert Hurkacz, Gael Monfils, Dominic Thiem, Stan Wawrinka, and Matteo Berrettini are among those in action.
U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship
Where: Houston, Texas
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $661,585
Points: 250
Top seed: Ben Shelton
Defending champion: Frances Tiafoe
Draw analysis: Clay in the United States—at least at the ATP level—starts and ends in Houston. The draw is less American heavy than usual, with only half of the eight seeded players hailing from the host nation. Shelton tops the list and has friendly path to the quarterfinals, but he is obviously an unproven commodity on the red stuff. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is by far the best clay-courter in the top half of the bracket, but he has struggled since suffering an ankle injury during the Golden Swing.
Tiafoe beat Etcheverry in last year’s final and a rematch is possible in 2024. However, based on current form it’s unlikely that Tiafoe’s title defense amounts to much. Shapovalov and Francisco Cerundolo are among those who could take advantage if Tiafoe makes an early exit.
Quarterfinal predictions: Ben Shelton over Brandon Nakashima, Tomas Martin Etcheverry over Juan Pablo Varillas, Thanasi Kokkinakis over Frances Tiafoe, and Francisco Cerundolo over Denis Shapovalov
Semifinals: Etcheverry over Shelton and Cerundolo over Kokkinakis
Final: Etcheverry over Cerundolo
Millenium Estoril Open
Where: Estoril, Portugal
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 579,320 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Casper Ruud
Defending champion: Casper Ruud
Draw analysis: Estoril is one of the better clay-court 250s on the 2024 calendar. Ruud and Hurkacz lead the way as the top two seeds and they are joined in a strong field by Monfils, Thiem, Lorenzo Musetti, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Arthur Fils. Ruud and Monfils are on a collision course for the quarterfinals, while Musetti vs. Fils could be a quarterfinal showdown on the other side of the bracket.
A couple of storylines worth following involve two players at opposite ends of the career spectrum. Joao Sousa is retiring in Estoril, so his final match will in all likelihood come against Fils in round one. Meanwhile, Joao Fonseca is a 17-year-old who started making a name for himself on the Golden Swing. The highly touted Brazilian could meet Hurkacz in the round of 16.
Quarterfinal predictions: Casper Ruud over Gael Monfils, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina over Daniel Altmaier, Lorenzo Musetti over Arthur Fils, and Dominik Koepfer over Joao Fonseca
Semifinals: Ruud over Davidovich Fokina and Musetti over Koepfer
Final: Ruud over Musetti
Grand Prix Hassan II
Where: Marrakech, Morocco
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 562,815 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Laslo Djere
Defending champion: Roberto Carballes Baena
Draw analysis: Laslo Djere is the No. 1 seed in Marrakech; he would be the No. 7 seed in Houston and he also wouldn’t have a first-round bye in Estoril. Needless to say, the Marrakech lineup is far from spectacular. That being said, Wawrinka and Berrettini are looking to resurrect their 2024 campaigns at a tournament in which the title is absolutely there for the taking. With Wawrinka and Berrettini on board, the unseeded contingent is even more interesting than the eight seeds!
Both of those veterans find themselves in the bottom half of the brackets; they could go head-to-head in the semifinals. Wawrinka’s path is wide open, but Berrettini has one of the toughest draws of anyone. The Italian will meet Alexander Shevchenko in round one and if he wins would be on course to face Lorenzo Sonego in the last eight. In a completely up for grabs top half, defending champion Roberto Carballes Baena is unseeded but has every chance to make another deep run.
Quarterfinal predictions: Flavio Cobolli over Laslo Djere, Facundo Diaz Acosta over Roberto Carballes Baena, Lorenzo Sonego over Alexander Shevchenko, and Stan Wawrinka over Sebastian Ofner
Semifinals: Diaz Acosta over Cobolli and Wawrinka over Sonego
Final: Wawrinka over Diaz Acosta
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