Players To Target Include James Conner, Marquise Brown, Najee Harris, and Others

The Arizona Cardinals‘ fantasy preview details what we’ve seen thus far from QB Kyler Murray, while the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ outlook takes a look at their struggling receivers and thriving running backs in fantasy football.

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Spread: Steelers -5.5
• Total: 39.5
• Cardinals implied points: 17
• Steelers implied points: 22.5

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray: The upside is intoxicating, and we’ve seen glimpses of peak Murray. He has a rush TD in all three of his games this season and is averaging 40.3 opportunities per game. That rate isn’t drastically different than what he posted last season (41.5) or in 2021 (40.6) and provides him with every opportunity to produce in a massive way.

There is some risk here and moving forward due to the schedule, plus the lack of reliable playmakers around him. The Steelers are the fifth-best red-zone defense and are capable of slowing down the game, but I do believe Murray’s potential against a blitz-heavy unit is too great to ignore.

Murray is a top-10 play for me this week, though. He was my nomination on Tuesday’s podcast as the best sell-high option at the QB position for leagues that have yet to see their trade deadline pass.

Kenny Pickett: The upside is limited, but this is a better matchup than what Pickett faced last week in Cincinnati, a game in which he recorded season-highs in passing yards (278) and completion percentage (72.7%).

Normally, I wouldn’t weigh one game too heavily, but it is worth noting that the strong performance came in the first game following the firing of Matt Canada as the offensive coordinator.

Pickett falls just outside of my top 15 this week due to the low ceiling, but if you’ve built a solid team in a deeper league and are just in search of a decent floor while you deal with a Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson bye, you could do worse.

Running Backs

James Conner: When your calling card is volume, 10 touches for 32 yards is not going to cut it for fantasy managers. Conner’s role was obviously impacted by the game script that occurred in a 23-point loss to the Rams, something that we don’t expect to be the case against a Steelers team that has been held under 25 points in nine straight games.

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You can panic if you want; I’m not. I have Conner ranked as a low-end RB2 this week, projecting him for essentially the exact stat line I opened the season expecting from him: 15-18 touches for 65-80 yards, with his finish ultimately depending on if he can find the end zone.

He’s essentially ranked behind the top-flight running backs stuck in brutal matchups (Bijan Robinson, D’Andre Swift, and Kyren Williams are all in tough spots but still preferred) and ahead of RBs in offenses that I view as having even less upside than the Cardinals (the Joe Mixons and Rhamondre Stevensons of the world).

Najee Harris: The Steelers can label either one of their RBs the “starter,” but with a 38-34 snap share (this week, it was in favor of Harris), this is as even a committee as we have. Harris has, per the Week 13 Cheat Sheet, been an RB1 in three of his past four games — not bad for a player who opened the season finishing outside of the top 30 in four of five games.

The 20-yard run may look like an explosive play in the box score, but it was a two-yard dive up the middle that somehow resulted in an additional 18 yards. Harris’ game is far less visually appealing than that of Jaylen Warren’s, but we get points for production, and he’s offered that at a nice clip over the past month.

I continue to rank Warren over Harris due to the advantage in ceiling, but both are starting RBs for me at the moment against the 26th-ranked per-carry run defense. The Cardinals also allow a league-high 4.5 red-zone trips per game, giving Harris the TD equity he needs to have access to if you’re like me and not willing to count on splash plays.

Jaylen Warren: Harris held the edge in snaps while Warren ran one more route than his backfield mate. The efficiency numbers are nothing short of special (82.2% catch rate to complement 5.8 yards per carry).

Last week was a Harris week (Warren: RB45) after the second-year back had posted three straight top-15 finishes. I don’t expect consistency to be the calling card of this backfield, but in games where Pittsburgh is favored, I’ll be ranking both of them as viable starters.

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown: For the first time since Murray returned under center, we saw glimpses of the promise we heaped onto Brown. The 11.8 half-PPR points are a nice start, but it was the 27.3% target share last week, and the fact that his aDOT is up 51.4% since Murray took over that gives me reasons for hope.

The nature in which the Steelers play defense makes this an all-or-nothing week for Hollywood, in my opinion. Does he exploit single coverage with Murray running around to avoid the blitz and hit on a few big plays? Or does his downfield role not get any love with Murray forced to get rid of the ball in a hurry?

I tend to lean the former, putting Brown on the fringe of my WR2 tier. The Steelers have played two divisional opponents with no real upside under center. The last time they played a team that could threaten them vertically was the Packers in Week 10, a game in which three different players had a 30+ yard catch against them (including a 35-yard TD from Jayden Reed).

I’m starting Brown and thinking he has as good a chance this week as any to give us his first top-15 finish of the season.

Michael Wilson: The rookie has missed consecutive games after suffering a setback to his shoulder, and with the Cardinals on bye next week, they’re likely to continue to be cautious with him. I’m not overly optimistic Wilson plays this week. Even if he does, a pitch count seems more than likely, with an early exit also on the table.

I maintain my thought that he can play at this level and that he might be a viable free stash this time next week in deeper leagues.

Greg Dortch earned a target on 20.5% of his routes against the Rams, a number that nearly tripled that of Rondale Moore (7.5%). I’m not of the belief that either is destined to matter, but it has become clear over the past two weeks that if Wilson remains inactive, Dortch (my WR48) is the proper flier to take.

Diontae Johnson: Your fantasy receiver can go viral for a few reasons, most of them are good. Johnson, however, was the exception in Week 12.

The clip of him showing no effort on a run play and then having no idea the ball was fumbled wasn’t flattering. Nor was him failing to finish the catch on a 15-yard touchdown.

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Johnson hasn’t been a top-45 receiver in three straight games, production that I’m not willing to write off due to health (he was a top-25 receiver in each of his first three games back from IR).

In theory, the 43 targets Johnson’s seen over the past five weeks should create enough of a floor to consider him a Flex option. Barely. This is a good matchup, and in PPR leagues, he’s a Flex, but the lack of a ceiling is going to prevent me from ranking him as anything higher than a middling one for the foreseeable future.

George Pickens: Johnson’s outlook wasn’t rosy, and it doesn’t get much better for Pickens. He has finished as WR45 on the nose in three of his past five — and those are his peak finishes over that stretch.

Johnson’s target count is why he’s my preferred Steelers wideout. Pickens hasn’t earned more than six targets in a game since Week 7, and with my lack of trust in Kenny Pickett, I prefer betting on volume as opposed to single targets that carry more value.

Pickens is a low-end WR3 for me in leagues that require you to start three at the position. He’s off my Flex radar in all other formats (for context, I prefer both Steelers RBs to Pickens in a Flex situation, Jayden Reed and Josh Downs if you’re looking for positional reference points).

Tight Ends

Trey McBride: Here are McBride’s numbers if you project his past month over the course of an entire season:

• 112 catches
• 150 targets
• 1,194 yards

The pedigree is proving predictive, and against the fourth-blitz-heaviest defense in the league, I very much expect another high-volume afternoon from McBride. He’s solidified himself as a lineup lock, and I have him in my top five for this week.

Pat Freiermuth: We weren’t sure what to expect in the first game post-Matt Canada, but Freiermuth (67.6% route participation) seeing seven of Kenny Pickett’s 18 first-half targets was certainly noteworthy. He opened the game by completing his first six passes, two of which went to his reliable TE (gains of 24 and 29 yards).

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The third-year tight end seems to be past the hamstring that cost him five games, and we have proof that he can be a viable option (seven touchdowns as a rookie and at least 60 catches in each of his first two NFL seasons).

This offense is not one that inspires a ton of confidence, but a consistent role with scoring upside is really all it takes to flirt with TE1 status.

Should You Start Zack Moss or Najee Harris?

I like Harris more this week than most, but there is no denying that the competition that he has simply doesn’t exist for Moss in Indianapolis with RB Jonathan Taylor on the shelf. Even in a difficult matchup, Moss owns the higher ceiling and floor this week and would get the nod over an upward-trending Harris in my lineup.

Should You Start DeAndre Hopkins or Marquise Brown?

Both of these receivers have shown us ceiling potential and are capable of putting up a massive performance. That said, I view QB Kyler Murray as a more stable option under center than rookie Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis, so I am leaning in the direction of Brown.

Tennessee Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t caught more than four passes in a game since Week 5 — a lack of volume that is enough for me to sit him in this specific head-to-head.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!