Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
These are the saddest of possible words,
Bryant to Báez to Rizzo.
Seeing projected WAR cut into thirds,
Bryant to Báez to Rizzo.
Quickly declining in other team’s hats,
by plate discipline or by powerless bats,
concussions and sore backs turn comebacks to splats,
Bryant to Báez to Rizzo.
The 2016 season was one of the greatest in the history of the Chicago Cubs, a franchise that dates back to 1870, before the National League even existed. After winning the World Series and ending a championship drought that dated back to 1908, there were a lot of reasons to think this team would continue to make deep playoff runs for another five or six years. Sure, they had a fairly old starting rotation, with only Kyle Hendricks expected to stick around for a while, but the lineup looked like it was equipped for a long stretch of dominance. Addison Russell was 22, Javier Báez and Kyle Schwarber were each 23, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, and Willson Contreras were all 24, and Anthony Rizzo was still just 26. The team’s big free agent signing from the previous winter, Jason Heyward, didn’t have a good first season in Chicago, but at 26, a bounce-back campaign wasn’t out of the question.
Still, this version of the Chicago Cubs would turn out to only have four postseason wins and a single playoff series win (the 2017 NLDS) left in them. What’s more, the three brightest stars in that constellation, Bryant, Báez, and Rizzo, were all traded at the 2021 deadline ahead of reaching free agency. Now, years later, each faces a very uncertain future.
The 2016 team started losing pieces almost immediately. As expected, the pitching staff faded away, with Hendricks quickly the last man standing. To replace the closer they rented for the 2016 run, Aroldis Chapman, the Cubs sent Soler to the Royals in return for a single season of Wade Davis. Russell was injured for much of 2017, struggled in 2018, and then was suspended due to serious charges of domestic violence; he last played in the majors in 2019. Heyward never really got back to being the player he was before signing with Chicago. The rest all departed via trades or in free agency, with Contreras the last one to leave Wrigley Field following the 2022 season. The team was in the mix for a playoff spot last year and still could get back into the fray this year, but if they do, it will be with very little of the DNA of the 2016 team remaining.
Remember when I mentioned that Báez, Bryant and Rizzo face uncertain futures? All three left 2023 with a worse outlook than they entered the year with, and 2024 has only continued that unpleasant trajectory. In 146 combined games this season, they’ve hit .203/.265/.299 with 11 home runs in 588 PA, “good” for -1.9 WAR. Sadly, there’s little reason to be optimistic about any of them turning the corner.
Báez’s 2024 has turned into a disaster fairly quickly. Signed to a six-year, $140 million contract by the Detroit Tigers in the winter of 2021, he disappointed in his first season with the team, posting a .238/.278/.393 slash line. Unfortunately, that now looks like it might be the highlight of his stay in Detroit: Báez dropped to a .222/.267/.325 line last season and is setting a new standard of underperformance this year, hitting .183/.209/.247, with a back injury and a high salary likely all that’s keeping an old English “D” on his cap. ZiPS has always had concerns about Báez’s plate discipline and the extra risk associated with it, but around the time the Cubs won the World Series, the computer still expected him to make at least some contribution in the early-to-mid-2020s:
ZiPS Projection – Javier Báez (Pre-2017)
Year, BA, OBP, SLG, AB, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB, SO, SB, OPS+, DR, WAR
2017, .254, .303, .428, 477, 61, 121, 22, 2, 19, 70, 26, 145, 16, 96, 4, 2.5
2018, .254, .305, .441, 460, 60, 117, 22, 2, 20, 70, 26, 143, 15, 100, 4, 2.7
2019, .252, .304, .447, 461, 61, 116, 23, 2, 21, 72, 27, 149, 15, 101, 4, 2.8
2020, .250, .304, .452, 460, 61, 115, 23, 2, 22, 73, 28, 149, 15, 102, 4, 2.9
2021, .247, .303, .445, 449, 60, 111, 22, 2, 21, 71, 28, 146, 13, 100, 3, 2.6
2022, .249, .303, .446, 437, 58, 109, 22, 2, 20, 68, 27, 136, 12, 101, 3, 2.5
2023, .250, .302, .441, 424, 55, 106, 20, 2, 19, 66, 25, 125, 11, 99, 2, 2.2
2024, .251, .304, .436, 406, 52, 102, 19, 1, 18, 61, 24, 114, 11, 98, 1, 2.0
2025, .248, .299, .416, 387, 48, 96, 18, 1, 15, 56, 22, 103, 10, 92, 0, 1.5
2026, .248, .299, .402, 343, 41, 85, 15, 1, 12, 47, 19, 83, 7, 89, -1, 1.0
2027, .245, .294, .391, 302, 34, 74, 12, 1, 10, 40, 16, 69, 7, 85, -2, 0.6
2028, .242, .287, .375, 240, 26, 58, 9, 1, 7, 29, 11, 51, 5, 78, -2, 0.2
2029, .239, .282, .365, 159, 17, 38, 6, 1, 4, 18, 7, 32, 2, 75, -2, -0.1
At this point, however, the full-fat ZiPS projections don’t see a comeback in the cards for Báez in 2025 or, well, ever:
ZiPS Projection – Javier Báez
Year, BA, OBP, SLG, AB, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB, SO, SB, OPS+, DR, WAR
2025, .228, .270, .346, 448, 51, 102, 19, 2, 10, 53, 20, 118, 10, 72, -1, 0.7
2026, .226, .267, .342, 412, 45, 93, 17, 2, 9, 47, 18, 110, 9, 70, -1, 0.5
2027, .226, .270, .344, 372, 41, 84, 16, 2, 8, 41, 17, 102, 7, 71, -2, 0.4
2028, .222, .262, .333, 162, 16, 36, 7, 1, 3, 17, 7, 46, 3, 66, -1, 0.0
Things haven’t gone much better for Báez’s former teammates. Bryant’s 2024 season barely got started before he landed on the IL with a back injury courtesy of a collision with the outfield wall on April 13. Less than two weeks after returning in late May, a ribcage injury from another intimate encounter with a wall put him right back on the IL, and he was eventually also diagnosed with an oblique injury; there’s no timetable for his return. Unfortunately, this has been a recurring theme for Bryant in Denver. Signed to a seven-year, $182 million deal, Bryant initially hit well for the Rockies, but he missed significant time in 2021, mostly due to two IL stints resulting from back problems. Healthier in 2022 — at least until problems with his right foot cut his season short — Bryant’s offense just about disappeared, and his anemic performance at the plate stretched into the start of this season. As with Báez, ZiPS has very limited expectations about Bryant’s future:
ZiPS Projection – Kris Bryant
Year, BA, OBP, SLG, AB, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB, SO, SB, OPS+, DR, WAR
2025, .243, .326, .389, 296, 38, 72, 16, 0, 9, 35, 31, 79, 2, 86, -5, 0.0
2026, .236, .321, .373, 284, 35, 67, 15, 0, 8, 32, 30, 79, 1, 81, -5, -0.3
2027, .235, .319, .363, 281, 33, 66, 15, 0, 7, 30, 29, 80, 1, 78, -5, -0.4
2028, .234, .319, .359, 128, 15, 30, 7, 0, 3, 13, 13, 38, 1, 78, -2, -0.2
It’s a projection that stands in sharp contrast to the computer’s expectations in 2016. ZiPS thought that if any of the Cubs were going to put together a Hall of Fame run, it would most likely be Bryant. A first-round pick in 2013, Bryant blasted through the minors, and his 2015 projection was the best ZiPS had ever given to a rookie (after Mike Trout). Bryant won an MVP award in 2016 to go along with his ring, and ZiPS expected him to be a superstar for a long time to come:
ZiPS Projection – Kris Bryant (Pre-2017)
Year, BA, OBP, SLG, AB, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB, SO, SB, OPS+, DR, WAR
2017, .274, .372, .512, 576…
