We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
**1. JAYLEN BROWN OVER 3.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+154)**
– Odds: +154
– Probability: 53.1%
– Projection: 4
– Edge: 13.7%
– Game: Cavaliers vs Celtics (7PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Cavaliers vs Celtics, with Jaylen Brown showing value in the total assists market. Our model has narrowed down Jaylen Brown Over 3.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today. Throughout the 23/24 season, Brown has been able to average a total of 3.6 assists per game. When facing off against the Cavaliers – this number jumps to 4.3. The Celtics are long and rangey, and a pretty bad match up for the Cavs who will struggle to defend the Celtics wing depth. Brown should facilitate tonight. Our model recommends placing a wager on Jaylen Brown Over 3.5 Total Assists at +154 odds and an attractive 13.7% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
**2. DERRICK WHITE OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+130)**
– Odds: +130
– Probability: 54.8%
– Projection: 5.4
– Edge: 11.3%
– Game: Cavaliers vs Celtics (7PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Cavaliers vs Celtics game, with Derrick White value in the over assist market. White was awesome in round one, and should continue to look to facilitate tonight – with Tatum and Brown likely to feast. Our model projects he clears this number by a whole assist in G1 tonight. The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Derrick White Over 4.5 Total Assists, with an edge of 11.3% at +130 odds available on Fanduel Sportsbook.
**3. DONOVAN MITCHELL OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-135)**
– Odds: -135
– Probability: 63%
– Projection: 6.9
– Edge: 5.6%
– Game: Cavaliers vs Celtics (7PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Cavaliers vs Celtics game, with Donovan Mitchell showing value in the over assists prop market. Throughout the 23/24 season Mitchell has been able to average 6.1 APG, with a postseason average of 4.4 APG. Tonight, our model predicts he will touch 7 assists. The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 Total Assists in tonight’s game, which gives us an 5.9% edge on the -135 odds currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
**4. DARIUS GARLAND OVER 5.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-115)**
– Odds: -115
– Probability: 58.5%
– Projection: 7
– Edge: 5.0%
– Game: Cavaliers vs Celtics (7PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Darius Garland in the Cavaliers vs Celtics showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Darius Garland Over 5.5 Total Assists. Over the course of the 2023/24 regular season Garland has averaged 6.5 assists per game, with an average of 7.0 against the Celtics throughout the regular season. Over the course of the first round of the playoffs, Garland was able to average a total of 5.4 assists per game. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that with an average of 5.4 assists in the postseason and a 7.0 average against the Celtics, we suspect that this is the closest prop to a no sweat bet for tonights NBA playoff slate. Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Darius Garland Over 5.5 Total Assists, with a detected edge of 5.0% and -115 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook.
**What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?**
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you. Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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