Move over, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Even Carlos Alcaraz might have to get out of the way.
A new big rival for Novak Djokovic is in town, and it’s Jannik Sinner.
Not long after they staged some incredible contests last fall, Djokovic and Sinner will meet again on Friday–this time in the semifinals of the Australian Open. Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 4-2, but Sinner has won two of their last three encounters. The Italian prevailed 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(2) during round-robin competition at the Nitto ATP Finals, lost the championship match 6-3, 6-3 just five days later, and then stunned Djokovic 6-2, 2-6, 7-5 from triple-match point down while leading his country past Serbia en route to the Davis Cup title.
What will the next chapter do for an encore? Well, it has all the makings of another epic between the hottest player on tour (Sinner) against the man who has won this tournament 10 times (Djokovic).
Sinner simply has not slowed down following his incredible late-2023 hot streak. The world No. 4 is through to his first Aussie Open semifinal–second slam semi overall–with victories over Botic van de Zandschulp, Jesper de Jong, Sebastian Baez, Karen Khachanov, and Andrey Rublev. Sinner has not dropped a single set and had not even played a tiebreaker before beating Rublev 6-4, 7-6(5), 6-3 on Tuesday night.
Djokovic has not been as dominant so far this fortnight, but as usual he has raised his level as the tournament has progressed. The 36-year-old needed four sets against Dino Prizmic and Alexei Popyrin in the first two rounds before easing past Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Adrian Mannarino in straights. Taylor Fritz had two set points in the first set of Tuesday’s quarterfinal match and the American ended up taking the second, but Djokovic still got the job done without too much trouble (7-6(3), 4-6, 6-2, 6-3).
Fritz threw pretty much everything he had at his opponent, but he found out the hard way the Djokovic is basically unbeatable at this stage at Melbourne Park. Every single time that the Serb has advanced to the quarterfinals, he has gone on to lift the trophy. Yes, Djokovic is now 11-0 in quarterfinals, 10-0 in semifinals, and 10-0 in finals.
It’s also worth noting that the 24-time major champion is 2-0 lifetime against Sinner at slams. Djokovic came back from two sets down to win in the 2022 Wimbledon quarterfinals prior to an easier 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(4) semifinal victory at the All-England Club in 2023. As those results suggest, Djokovic is just too good in best-of-five situations.
Sinner is already much improved since Wimbledon, but he has not yet come up clutch in a five-setter on any of the biggest stages in tennis. He has suffered marathon losses at each of the four slams, most notably in New York but also in Melbourne (to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the fourth round last year). Another five-set heartbreak could be in the cards, because Djokovic is a rare breed in that even at 36 years old you have to give him the physical–and mental–edge over a 22-year-old opponent.
Given Djokovic’s prowess at Grand Slams and at Melbourne Park specifically, the notion that this should be an instant classic is a testament to how incredibly well Sinner is playing right now.
Pick: Djokovic in 5
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